Probability Technical Analysis

31 May 2025 - Market Recap and Strategy Outlook This week has been marked by a wave of events that have injected significant uncertainty into the markets. Key developments include: Former President Trump stated on social media that China has "violated" its current trade agreement with the U.S. A federal trade court struck down Trump’s previously enacted worldwide reciprocal tariffs. The use of the Trade Act of 1974 was proposed to implement new tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days. Recent economic data suggests it may not yet be the right time for interest rate cuts. Anticipation of upcoming high-impact economic data releases is adding further pressure to market sentiment. Given this heightened level of noise and uncertainty, we believe the best course of action is to focus on technical analysis (TA) setups and apply disciplined risk management. This approach will help us navigate the volatility and better position ourselves for the next potential movements in the major indices. Key Chart Setups to Watch Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) The index is facing strong resistance at the 200-day moving average on the daily chart—unlike the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which have broken above this level. 👉 Watch for resistance between 42,500 and 43,000. Eli Lilly (LLY) The stock is holding support near $717, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. 👉 Technical bias remains bullish unless this level breaks. US Oil (WTI) News that OPEC+ may increase oil output for July has pressured prices lower. 👉 Short-term bias leans bearish given potential supply increases. Final Thoughts That’s all for this week. Stay cautious and continue to monitor key market developments. Trade safe, and see you again next week!

📰 Market Recap Last week, U.S. indices showed signs of a dead cat bounce, forming a double bottom "W" pattern with a breakout above the neckline resistance. However, market sentiment remains tense, despite the VIX dropping below 25 last Friday — a signal of reduced volatility. Adding to the cautious tone, China announced on Thursday that no trade talks are currently underway with the U.S., even after the U.S. seemed to soften its stance earlier in the week. While momentum is improving, major resistance levels still lie ahead for all U.S. indices. I will dive deeper into these resistance levels in my upcoming video this week. 🔎 Key Events to Watch This Week 📅 Major Earnings Releases: Tuesday: Visa, Sofi Technologies, Coca-Cola Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Caterpillar Thursday: Amazon, Apple, Mastercard, McDonald's, Eli Lilly Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron These earnings will offer important insights into consumer spending, tech sector resilience, and the energy market outlook. 📈 Economic Data Highlights: Wednesday: Core PCE Price Index (Key inflation gauge for the Fed) Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate Expect heightened volatility around these releases, particularly if inflation or labor data deviates from expectations. 🚗 Tesla (TSLA) Update Since early 2025, I have been advocating Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) into Tesla during price dips. As shared in my March 9, 2025 video: Key Support Levels: $250 and $225 Update: Tesla has repeatedly held the $225 level since March, reinforcing it as a significant support zone. If you've been accumulating near these levels, you are well-positioned as Tesla continues building a strong technical foundation. 🧠 Final Thoughts This will be a pivotal week for the markets, with heavyweight earnings, inflation data, and labor market reports all converging. Stay disciplined, monitor key technical levels, and be prepared for potential major moves as we head into May!

Last week was one of the most volatile periods in recent Wall Street history. Markets experienced dramatic swings as trade policy uncertainty gripped investors and pushed sentiment into risk-off mode. After a historic surge on Wednesday—where the S&P 500 jumped 9.52% (its third-largest single-day gain since WWII) and the Dow soared over 2,900 points—Thursday brought a sharp reversal. The S&P 500 dropped 3.46%, the Dow fell 1,014.79 points (-2.5%), and the Nasdaq plunged 4.31%, giving up a significant portion of the previous day’s gains. The VIX spiked above 50 before easing to around 37 by Friday afternoon, reflecting the heightened anxiety in the market. The brief optimism was sparked by President Trump's announcement of a 90-day delay on some of his “reciprocal” tariffs. On the positive side, updated guidance from U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirmed exemptions on a range of tech products—including smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar cells, flat panel TVs, and memory components. The White House explained the exemptions were intended to give companies time to relocate production back to the U.S. Despite the midweek rally, the broader market tone remains cautious. The wild intraday and day-to-day fluctuations show how fragile confidence is, as investors continue to grapple with conflicting policy signals and macro uncertainty. While these sharp moves may offer tactical opportunities—especially in sectors benefiting from tariff exemptions or those poised for domestic reshoring—the bigger picture is still very unclear. Looking ahead, much depends on the next moves from both the U.S. and China. If the U.S. decides to fully roll back its tariffs, the key question is whether other countries, especially China, will reciprocate. If China does cancel its own tariffs, it could be seen as them being outmaneuvered or pressured into submission—a potential loss of face in a high-stakes negotiation. On the other hand, if China maintains its tariffs, it risks worsening its own economic position, since tariffs are generally viewed as a net negative for growth. For now, I’ll be keeping a close watch on index movements before diving deeper into individual company positions. The market needs more clarity before stronger conviction returns.

15 March 2025 - Weekly Market Update Last Friday, both stocks and indices rallied. However, this does not necessarily indicate a market recovery. Instead, it reflects a partial rebound from the steep losses seen throughout the week, as investors found temporary relief from tariff-related headlines. Overall, the Dow fell approximately 3.1%, marking its worst week since March 2023. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both declined more than 2%, recording their fourth consecutive losing week. Key Market Levels to Watch In the coming week, we will closely monitor several key levels: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): A quick move above the 42,000 double-top neckline is necessary for a potential recovery. S&P 500: The index should hold above 5,600 to maintain a bullish outlook. A close below 5,500 could trigger further bearish sentiment. Stock Watchlist Affirm Holdings (AFRM) We continue to maintain a bullish bias on Affirm Holdings, which was recommended on 9 March 2025. The first support level remains at $45. Further confirmation of upside momentum will be needed in the coming sessions. Tesla (TSLA) Tesla must recover quickly above $275–$300 to regain upward momentum. Last week, the stock hit $225, presenting a potential buying opportunity for dollar-cost averaging (DCA) investors. However, Tesla remains volatile, and certainty will be crucial for sustained upside movement. Investors should pay close attention to Tesla’s upcoming sales report, which will be a key factor in market sentiment. Walmart (WMT) Walmart remains a solid defensive stock that tends to perform well during economic downturns. The stock recently retraced to its 200-day moving average (MA) on the daily chart, attracting interest from investors looking to buy at a discount. However, my personal buying target is around $80, which could be reached if broader market sentiment continues to weaken. There are several reasons why $80 is an attractive entry point—watch the video for more insights. As a reminder, Walmart falls under the Consumer Staples sector, which is traditionally defensive. Final Thoughts That’s all for this week. Stay cautious and continue to monitor key market developments. Trade safe, and see you again next week!

Market Recap & Key Highlights The three major indexes ended the week in the green as investor sentiment improved following more certainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. The Nasdaq outperformed, closing 2.6% higher, compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and the S&P 500. Key Events to Watch This Week U.S. Market Closure – The U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for Washington’s Birthday. Corporate Earnings – All eyes will be on Alibaba, which is set to announce earnings on Thursday. The stock has seen strong momentum recently, supported by an overall uptrend in the Hang Seng Index (HSI). Additionally, Alibaba’s newly announced partnership with Apple has provided another boost to its share price. Key Stocks & Commodities to Watch 1. Hang Seng Index (HSI) The index has been on a strong upward run. Watch for resistance at 23,000 – 23,200. 2. Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Warren Buffett recently invested in this stock, leading to a 6% surge after market hours on Friday. Support Levels: $170 (short-term support) $160 (major support – recent low) A close below $160 could indicate further downside pressure. 3. Alibaba (BABA) Alibaba has broken out strongly on the weekly chart, with the next resistance levels at $140 and $160. However, we are watching for a potential retracement in the coming week for a better entry point. Alternatively, waiting until after the earnings report may be a safer approach. 4. Commodities – Focus on Palladium Silver and Copper have had strong uptrends, shifting focus to Palladium. The metal has found strong support around $850 and remains above the 200-day moving average (MA). A bullish RSI divergence has formed on the weekly chart, and $850, previously a resistance level, has now turned into support. However, a break and close below $850 would negate this bullish setup. Enjoy and trade safe!

Wishing You a Happy Chinese New Year! First and foremost, I’d like to wish all my Chinese followers and friends a very Happy Chinese New Year in the coming days! May this year bring you prosperity, health, and an extremely green portfolio! Market Recap & Key Highlights: The three major indices logged their second consecutive positive week, signaling a strong comeback for the bull market after December’s pullback. The S&P 500 not only hit fresh intraday records but also closed at a new all-time high on Thursday. The markets seem to love Trump’s promises so far. On Thursday, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump stated he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately.” He also mentioned plans to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC nations to lower oil prices. However, it’s important to remember: talk is cheap, and delivery is hard. As markets continue to surge to all-time highs, don’t let greed take over—stay vigilant and avoid being caught off guard. Key Events to Watch This Week: Fed Interest Rate Decision: On Thursday, all eyes will be on the Fed to see if it succumbs to Trump’s call for lower interest rates or maintains its independence. Tech Earnings: Big names are reporting this week, including Tesla on Wednesday. Investors will be closely watching how the stock performs, especially with Elon Musk’s support of Trump during the election. Oil Market & DAX Update: Following up on my earlier analysis, I warned about oil hitting resistance with a bearish bias. I hope no one is holding long positions in crude oil and that many of you profited from shorting it. Additionally, keep an eye on the DAX index. After breaking record highs last week, there are signs of weakness on the hourly chart that may indicate a potential pullback. Weekly Updates: My weekly market update videos will resume after Chinese New Year. It’s time for some much-needed family bonding and celebrations with friends and relatives. Trade Safe & Stay Safe! Wishing you all a great week ahead and a fantastic Chinese New Year!

Happy New Year 2025 to All My Followers! I want to take a moment to wish everyone a fantastic year ahead. May 2025 bring you success, happiness, and growth in whatever you pursue. Let’s stay focused, trade and invest wisely, and grow together as a community. I’ll continue to provide updates across all my social media platforms, including Facebook, Telegram, and YouTube. This week, we’ll kick off the year with a market update video, starting with a broad overview of the markets and narrowing down to a few stocks I’m placing my bets on for 2025—stocks that I believe we should consider for our portfolios. In the video, I’ll cover: Indices: DJI, Nasdaq, HSI Commodities: Gold and Oil charts My top picks: 2 stocks and 1 ETF These three stocks are my bets for 2025, and I’ll be tracking their performance closely. I’ll share updates mid-year and at year-end to see how they perform overall. If you're looking to make changes in your portfolio, take action now! Once again, Happy New Year to all of you reading this or watching my video. Take care, trade safe, and let’s make 2025 a remarkable year together!

A lot has happened since my last market update. Donald Trump has won the presidential election, and the Chinese government approved a massive 10-trillion-yuan ($1.4 trillion) plan aimed at reviving its domestic economy and enabling provincial governments to refinance debt. However, as the stimulus plan fell short of market expectations, the China A50 and Hang Seng Index (HSI) have continued their decline. With Trump’s inauguration set for January 20, many are once again concerned about a potential US-China trade war, which could spell trouble for Chinese ADR shares. As we approach the end of 2024 with just six weeks remaining, the market may trade sideways until Trump officially takes office next year. In the meantime, we’re seeing a healthy market pullback following last week’s record highs across all three major US indices. It’s not surprising to see a dip after the sharp rally that followed Trump’s election victory. In this video, I’ll highlight a few stocks to watch, including Coca-Cola, Eli Lilly (LLY), and Affirm. Finally, all eyes will be on NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report, set to release this Wednesday. Stay tuned!